Reaching Safe Ground

http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/07/wo/wo_072605wolman.asp?p=0

Although the tsunami simulator emphasizes communications, there's no limit
to the layers of data it can simulate. It could include architectural
designs that predict if structures will stand or be damaged, what bridges
could survive a wave impact, the importance of the time of day, or even
the likelihood that people will hear a warning, but not heed it.
Furthermore, the model incorporates not only vehicular movements but also
foot traffic.

"This is something they're really focusing on in Japan: getting beyond
dependence on automobiles for evacuation," says Crawford. In
geographically similar areas, such as the narrow, low-lying peninsula of
Long Beach, Washington, this approach would be critical, as well, since a
tsunami there would likely take out major roads and bridges.
In fact, Crawford says officials in Washington, Oregon, and northern
California stand to benefit greatly from such a social science model. For
instance, it has already helped Crawford and other planners figure out
where to locate safe "assembly areas" that evacuees could quickly reach by
foot.
"What this computer simulation does is allow us to take inundation maps
and models showing wave arrivals, combine them with information about
infrastructure, and then take into account the social science as well,"
says Crawford. "Running these models gives a fairly close prediction of
whether we can evacuate our people in time and what the collateral damage
would be."